A worked example, with synthetic data.
This page demonstrates the format and content of the periodic demand report the Foundation will produce as submissions to artsindex.org accumulate. The numbers shown below are synthetic. They are not findings about Duncanville’s audience.
The data on this page was generated by the Foundation to illustrate the format of the periodic demand report. Ten synthetic respondents were created to test the calibration math, the chart layouts, and the report structure. No actual resident submissions are reflected. Real demand reports will appear on this page once submission volumes reach the methodological thresholds defined in Section 7.2 of the Cultural Investment Strategy.
What this sample contains.
Ten synthetic respondents submitted ratings across 405 of the 750 possible concept-rating combinations (an average of 40 concepts rated per respondent). Eight respondents were placed in Duncanville (ZIPs 75116 and 75137); two were placed in neighboring Best Southwest cities. Six respondents opted in for follow-up email.
What this report would say.
After applying the Foundation’s calibration stack (Juster top-box translation, Morwitz adjustment, and a social-desirability haircut), the synthetic responses produce measurable demand signal across all 75 catalog concepts, with a clear separation between the top quartile and the bottom quartile of the catalog. Fifty-five concepts show implied demand exceeding their per-event target by 1.5× or more; nine show coverage within a workable range; six show insufficient demand to fill the format as designed.
The high coverage counts are partly a function of the catalog itself: most per-event targets sit between 50 and 250 seats, while the calibrated implied demand draws from a pool of 31,500 adults. A 5% calibrated probability across the city already produces 1,575 implied attending adults, which exceeds most single-event capacities. Coverage above 1.5× is therefore the expected baseline for this sample. The discriminating signal lives in the ranking of concepts within the top quartile, where coverage ratios separate by an order of magnitude.
A note on statistical weight. At ten respondents, per-concept sample sizes range from one to seven ratings. The Foundation’s methodology requires a minimum of one hundred ratings per concept before CII demand scores are considered actionable for activation decisions. This sample illustrates the report format and pipeline integrity. Programming decisions wait for larger samples.
Top ten concepts by implied demand.
The ten concepts below produced the highest calibrated implied demand from this synthetic sample. The Coverage column expresses implied demand as a multiple of the concept’s per-event target attendance. A coverage of 1.0× means the calibrated estimate matches the per-event target; 5.0× means the implied audience is five times the per-event capacity, suggesting the concept could sustain multiple performances or a larger venue.
| # | Concept | n | Mean | Implied demand | Per-event target | Coverage | CII (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curated Jazz Series | 3 | 8.3 | 7,559 | 175 | 43.2× | 25.0 |
| 2 | Open Studios Tour | 3 | 7.7 | 6,930 | 1,500 | 4.6× | 24.8 |
| 3 | Ballet and Contemporary Dance Performance | 6 | 7.3 | 6,693 | 425 | 15.8× | 24.7 |
| 4 | Swing Dance Social | 4 | 7.5 | 6,378 | 90 | 70.9× | 24.5 |
| 5 | Screening with Filmmaker Q&A | 5 | 7.0 | 6,331 | 120 | 52.8× | 24.5 |
| 6 | Block Party with Arts Programming | 3 | 7.0 | 6,299 | 1,500 | 4.2× | 24.5 |
| 7 | Salsa and Bachata Social | 6 | 6.8 | 5,985 | 100 | 59.9× | 24.3 |
| 8 | Heritage Food Festival | 4 | 6.8 | 5,906 | 4,500 | 1.3× | 24.3 |
| 9 | Mainstage Opera Production | 7 | 6.6 | 5,724 | 750 | 7.6× | 24.2 |
| 10 | Contra Dance Social | 7 | 6.4 | 5,656 | 90 | 62.9× | 24.2 |
Interpretation notes
Curated Jazz Series (DAF-002) tops the sample with a calibrated 7,559 implied attending adults against a per-event target of 175. A coverage ratio of 43× at this stage represents preliminary signal that warrants validation as the sample grows. With n=3, the estimate carries wide uncertainty bands.
Open Studios Tour (DAF-013) and Heritage Food Festival (DAF-073) show high implied demand against larger per-event targets (1,500 and 4,500 respectively). Their lower coverage ratios reflect the scale of the format rather than weaker demand.
Dance-format concepts cluster in the top quartile: Ballet & Contemporary Dance (DAF-039), Swing Dance Social (DAF-043), Salsa & Bachata Social (DAF-042), and Contra Dance Social (DAF-041) all rank in the top fifteen. This signal is preliminary at sample sizes of 4 to 7 ratings per concept, but worth tracking as the sample grows.
Where demand concentrates by discipline.
Aggregating across discipline categories reveals which areas of the catalog draw the strongest interest from this sample. The chart below shows average implied demand per concept within each discipline group, with the number of concepts in each group noted above each bar.
Dance and Music carry the highest average per-concept demand at this sample size, with virtually identical means around 4,560 implied attending adults. Visual Arts and Multidisciplinary formats follow closely. Literary, Arts Education, and Theater fall lowest in this sample, each averaging below 3,500. The narrow spread across discipline groups (highest at 4,567, lowest at 2,754) suggests the difference between disciplines is smaller than the difference between specific concepts within each discipline. The strongest predictor of demand at this stage is the concept itself rather than its discipline category.
Coverage against per-event targets.
The coverage ratio (implied demand divided by the concept’s designed per-event attendance target) translates audience interest into operational fit. Concepts with coverage above 1.5× (full accent) suggest the format could fill its target capacity with room to spare or warrant a larger production. Concepts in the 0.8× to 1.5× range (lighter accent) sit close to their target. Concepts below 0.8× (muted gray) show insufficient demand at the current sample to fill the format as designed.
Coverage tier counts
Of the 70 concepts where per-event targets are defined:
Concepts with weakest current demand.
The ten concepts below produced the lowest calibrated implied demand in this sample. At n=10 respondents, low scores here are not yet diagnostic: a concept with two ratings of zero and zero ratings of seven would appear weak even if its true population demand is healthy. These results function as a watch-list for the next sample expansion rather than as a basis for deprioritization.
| Concept | n | Mean | Implied demand | Top-box % | CII (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curated Themed Film Series | 5 | 3.0 | 1,890 | 0% | 21.1 |
| Black Box Studio Theater | 5 | 3.2 | 2,079 | 0% | 21.4 |
| One-Act Play Festival | 7 | 3.4 | 2,430 | 0% | 21.8 |
| Presented Dance Performance Series | 6 | 3.0 | 2,441 | 16% | 21.8 |
| Modern Dance Series | 6 | 3.5 | 2,520 | 0% | 21.9 |
| Staged Reading Series | 6 | 3.7 | 2,520 | 0% | 21.9 |
| Single-Session Public Workshop | 4 | 3.5 | 2,598 | 0% | 22.0 |
| Commissioned Mural Program | 7 | 3.7 | 2,632 | 0% | 22.0 |
| Devised Theater Production | 5 | 3.6 | 2,646 | 0% | 22.1 |
| Teen Arts Program | 6 | 3.7 | 2,756 | 16% | 22.2 |
How the calibration math works.
The Foundation translates raw Juster ratings (0–10 scale) into individual probability of attendance using the standard Juster mapping (0=0%, 5=40%, 8=75%, 10=99%). The mean of these probabilities across respondents is then adjusted by two coefficients drawn from the consumer-research literature.
The Morwitz factor of 0.60 (Morwitz, Steckel, Gupta, 2007) corrects for the well-documented gap between stated purchase intent and actual purchase behavior in new-product categories. The social-desirability haircut of 0.50 (Kirchberg & Kuchar, 2014) further discounts cultural-attendance intent specifically, which research shows is overstated more than other consumer categories due to the perceived social value of arts participation.
The combined adjustment (0.60 × 0.50 = 0.30) means a respondent who marks a Juster score of 10 (99% probability of attendance in raw terms) contributes a calibrated 30% probability to the final estimate. Multiplied by the Duncanville adult population of 31,500 (2020 American Community Survey, ages 18+), this becomes the implied demand figure shown throughout this report.
CII demand component
The CII Demand score (0–25 points) shown in the right column of the top ten table is computed as a logarithmic function of implied demand, normalized so the highest-demand concept in the sample receives 25 points. This is one of five components that combine into the full Cultural Investment Index score per the Foundation’s Cultural Investment Strategy v3. The full CII calculation requires the other four components (financial validation, geographic targeting, governance fit, capacity match), which are not derived from this catalog and are scored separately.
What this sample cannot tell us.
Sample size. Per-concept ratings range from 1 to 7 in this dataset. Confidence intervals around any single concept’s implied demand are wide. The Foundation’s methodology requires n ≥ 100 ratings per concept before CII demand scores are used for activation decisions.
Self-selection. Respondents who reach the catalog through Foundation channels (Advisory Board, mailing list, direct outreach) are systematically more arts-engaged than the average Duncanville resident. The first wave of submissions overstates demand relative to the broader population. Subsequent waves should include outreach to channels that reach less-engaged residents.
Coverage gaps. Respondents rate a self-selected subset of the 75 concepts. Concepts that few respondents engage with may show artificially low demand simply because their rated population was small and unrepresentative. As n grows, this evens out.
Stability over time. A single moment of preference is not a 24-month research dataset. The Foundation’s research design calls for longitudinal sampling (cohorts collected at intervals across the 24-month window) so that demand stability can be tested before any concept is moved into activation.
What this sample supports.
The Cultural Investment Strategy moves concepts through four sequential stages. The catalog at artsindex.org sits at stage one, intake. Advancement between stages requires the concept to clear quantitative thresholds defined in the Strategy. Demand intent alone does not move a concept to ticket sales or sponsor outreach.
What advancement requires
Stage two, validation, requires evidence that the demand expressed at intake converts to financial commitment. For ticketed concepts, this means actual ticket purchases or paid deposits at price points consistent with the Pricing tab of the catalog workbook. For non-ticketed concepts (free festivals, public murals, library programs), validation comes through sponsor commitments, in-kind partnerships, or grant funding earmarked for the specific activation.
The CIS sets a 100% pre-commitment threshold before any concept proceeds to stage three, activation. A concept that has covered 75% of its budget through pre-sales or sponsor commitments waits at stage two until the remaining 25% is committed. The Foundation treats this as a governing constraint.
What this sample supports
At ten respondents, no concept clears the threshold to advance from intake to validation. The Foundation’s methodology requires n ≥ 100 ratings per concept before CII demand component scores are considered actionable. The most-rated concept in this sample has n = 7.
The sample does support a watch-list. The eight concepts below have shown the strongest early signal across the highest available rating volume in this sample. They warrant additional sampling targeted at their likely audiences before the next reporting period. They are listed in priority order for follow-up outreach.
| # | Concept | n | Implied demand | Format scale | Suggested follow-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ballet and Contemporary Dance Performance | 6 | 6,693 | 425 / event | Survey existing ballet audiences in regional markets |
| 2 | Swing Dance Social | 4 | 6,378 | 90 / event | Pop-up event at Armstrong Park |
| 3 | Screening with Filmmaker Q&A | 5 | 6,331 | 120 / event | Partner with library film series |
| 4 | Salsa and Bachata Social | 6 | 5,985 | 100 / event | Test demand at adult-education centers |
| 5 | Heritage Food Festival | 4 | 5,906 | 4,500 / event | Sponsor outreach to food vendors |
| 6 | Mainstage Opera Production | 7 | 5,724 | 750 / event | Survey opera audiences regionally |
| 7 | Contra Dance Social | 7 | 5,656 | 90 / event | Test at community center |
| 8 | Outdoor Free Concert Series | 5 | 5,481 | 800 / event | Sample expansion through targeted channels |
Advancement decisions deferred
The Strategy’s pre-commitment requirement protects the Foundation from activating concepts that show interest but produce no follow-through. At the present sample, advancing any concept to stage two would require either a methodology exception (which the Strategy does not allow) or speculative pre-purchase outreach without a defensible demand basis. The Foundation does neither.
The honest framing for this reporting period: the catalog is operational, residents are engaging, and early signal is appearing. Recommendations to advance specific concepts will appear in reports four through twelve, when the per-concept sample sizes reach the threshold the Strategy requires.
What comes next.
Sample expansion target. The first meaningful CII analysis run requires approximately 250 respondents producing roughly 6,000 ratings, which would yield n ≥ 80 for the most-rated concepts and n ≥ 30 for the least-rated. This is achievable within sixty to ninety days through digital outreach to the Advisory Board and through community partners.
Distribution channels. All outreach is digital. The Advisory Board is the smallest unit of expansion and the first wave. Community partners (libraries, school district family communications, neighborhood associations operating digitally) constitute the second wave through one-to-one introductions and trusted intermediary relationships.
Reporting cadence. Generate this report monthly during the active sampling period. The first three reports establish baseline. Reports four through twelve establish stability of the demand signal across cohorts. Reports thirteen onward (post-300 respondents) feed the formal CII activation review for the first wave of incubated organizations.
Sources and citations.
Sample source
Synthetic respondent set generated by the Foundation on May 5, 2026, to demonstrate the report format. Ten profiles created with varied engagement levels (high, moderate, skeptical) and varied taste preferences. Each profile assigned a ZIP code consistent with the Best Southwest geography. Ratings drawn from constrained probability distributions calibrated to produce realistic Juster-scale responses. The dataset is not based on any actual respondent and contains no personally identifiable information.
Calibration coefficients
Juster, F. T. (1966). “Consumer buying intentions and purchase probability: An experiment in survey design.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 61(315), 658–696.
Morwitz, V. G., Steckel, J. H., & Gupta, A. (2007). “When do purchase intentions predict sales?” International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), 347–364.
Kirchberg, V., & Kuchar, R. (2014). “How global is global cultural consumption? An inquiry into intercultural differences.” Cultural Trends, 23(1), 22–36.
Population reference
U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Table B01001. Duncanville city, Texas. Adult population (18 years and over): 31,547, rounded to 31,500 for calibration.
Methodology source
Thompson, R. (2026). Cultural Investment Strategy, version 3. Duncanville Arts Foundation. Section 4.3 (Demand Validation Methodology) and Section 7.2 (CII Demand Component Scoring).